Optimism, or lack thereof, is a key driver to both current and future spending. Practitioners in both consumer and B2B market research have known this for some time. There are numerous ongoing tracking studies which measure consumer sentiment and/or sentiment amongst purchase managers. Both have shown to have a measure of explanatory ability for current and future spending levels.
Regardless of your field of study it may be worth adding a few questions to any tracking studies you are conducting or planning to implement. The sample below is a perfect example of a dichotomous question that asks if respondents are feeling optimistic about the economy in the year to come.
As for survey design this question can be expanded using a Likert scale or even a numerical scale (0 – 10 or 0 – 100). Consider your survey data analysis plans when deciding on how to format the question. Regardless of which design format you choose, I recommend adding a subsequent question or two designed to probe into the respondent’s sense of optimism. Using logic you can ask the participant to elaborate on why they are feeling optimistic or not optimistic. These follow up questions can be either unstructured or structured.
There are a few key things to consider about asking participants to look forward. First, the longer the timeframe, the less reliable the data will be. There are a few reasons for this. Namely there are countless unplanned events that can occur over the longer timeframe, none of which are known to the respondent at the present (e.g. potential loss of job, changes in the economy, etc.) We are most certain about the present, with that certainty declining the farther out we look. This is why optimism questions are best suited toward tracking studies which are asked on regular intervals (weekly, monthly or quarterly).
Measuring optimism over time can provide valuable consumer insight in both the consumer and business markets. As you build up time-series measurements it can be incorporated into the forecasting process. So with that said, how optimistic are you about the economy in the first quarter of 2013.